Pre-mortem

pagedecideplanconverge

Make failure vivid before committing, so it can be prevented.

Variants

• default
• Repeat until a failure would surprise you

Data fields

The fields a spec's page can set for this component (see switchback show pre-mortem --json):

• subject
• horizon

Grounding

Helps: when a plan is about to be locked in; imagining it has already failed surfaced more and better risks than brainstorming in a few team studies, though whether it lowers overconfidence on a solo page is untested

Backfires: when the page pushes for many failure reasons, since struggling to list them can make failure feel less likely, or when explaining one imagined failure in detail makes it seem more probable than the alternatives

• CImagining that an outcome has already happened ("it failed") leads people to generate more, and more specific, reasons for it than imagining that it might happen.Peabody (2017), Koehler (1991)
• CRunning a pre-mortem on a plan reduces overconfidence in it and surfaces more risks than a standard critique or pros-and-cons review.Gallop, Willy & Bischoff (2016), Peabody (2017), Sanna, Schwarz & Stocker (2002), Koehler (1991)

What the grades mean