Assumption audit
Surface the beliefs the plan silently rests on.
Variants
- default
Data fields
The fields a spec's page can set for this component (see switchback show assumption-audit --json):
assumptions
Grounding
Helps: when a plan rests on beliefs nobody has written down; listing assumptions is practitioner craft with no direct test, and the evidence that asking for a reason each could be wrong reduces overconfidence is mixed, so treat the low-confidence dots as a guide to which to test first, not a correction
Backfires: when the falsifier column asks for many reasons against each assumption, since listing many is hard and can strengthen the original belief, or when a high-confidence dot is read as proof, because certainty runs ahead of accuracy
- DExplicitly listing the assumptions a plan depends on, and naming a test for each, identifies more of the plan's vulnerabilities than reviewing the plan without such a list.Mason & Mitroff (1981), Dewar (2002), McGrath & MacMillan (1995)
- CCoarse, three-level confidence ratings discriminate correct from incorrect judgements above chance (resolution), even though people are typically overconfident in absolute terms. Items marked low-confidence are therefore a useful flag for risk.Fleming & Lau (2014), Moore & Healy (2008), Koriat, Lichtenstein & Fischhoff (1980)
- CAsking people to consider reasons their judgement could be wrong reduces overconfidence and biased assimilation, compared with no instruction or an instruction to be unbiased.Koriat, Lichtenstein & Fischhoff (1980), Lord, Lepper & Preston (1984), Larrick (2004), Sanna, Schwarz & Stocker (2002)